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Predict Race Performance
By running several 5K races during your marathon training, you
can predict how fast you're capable of going in the marathon itself.
This chart was designed by Gerry Purdy and reprinted, in part, from
information supplied for Galloway's Book on Running. More extensive
charts are offered in Gerry's Computerized Running Training Programs,
published in Track & Field News.
1. If you're running your first marathon, use this chart only to
see what you could run if you were running to capacity. Then set
your goal about two minutes per mile slower than that goal. If your
first one is slow and enjoyable (and the two are related), you'll
continue to enjoy exercise and benefit from it. You'll have the
opportunity to run faster in the next marathon...or the one after
that.
2. Run several 5K's on non-long-run weekends. Make sure they are
run on certified courses (which have been accurately measured).
See what your 5K predicts in the marathon. The more 5K's you run,
the better your prediction potential.
3. This prediction is only valid if you have run the 26-to-28
mile-training run (two minutes per mile slower than you could run
it) three weeks before the marathon itself. Those with goals of
3:40 or faster need to have also done the mile repeats as prescribed
in the new Marathon!
4. If the marathon course is hilly or marathon day weather is above
50 degrees F and over 50 percent humidity, your time will not be
as fast as it would be under ideal conditions. As the heat and humidity
rise, you must adjust your pace to be more conservative from the
first mile of the marathon. Be aware of heat disease symptoms and
get help at the first sign of these.
5. Adjustment: Since this table is based upon ideal conditions that
never occur together, you must adjust. Also, don't use your best
5K time to predict your marathon performance. Take an average of
your best three times, and then add 10 to 20 minutes to the prediction.
A conservative pace in the beginning will conserve your resources,
allowing you to run faster at the end if you're ready to do so.
| Race Prediction Chart |
|
5KTIME
|
MARTIME
|
HALF
|
MARTIME
|
5KTIME
|
MARTIME
|
HALF
|
MARTIME
|
|
13:20
|
2:10:00
|
1:01:24
|
|
16:08
|
2:38:44
|
1:14:45
|
|
|
13:25
|
2:10:46
|
1:01:45
|
|
16:15
|
2:39:53
|
1:15:17
|
|
|
13:29
|
2:11:32
|
1:02:06
|
|
16:22
|
2:41:02
|
1:15:49
|
|
|
13:34
|
2:12:19
|
1:02:28
|
|
16:29
|
2:42:13
|
1:16:22
|
|
|
13:38
|
2:13:06
|
1:02:50
|
|
16:36
|
2:43:24
|
1:16:54
|
|
|
13:43
|
2:13:54
|
1:03:13
|
|
16:43
|
2:44:37
|
1:17:28
|
|
|
13:48
|
2:14:43
|
1:03:35
|
|
16:50
|
2:45:50
|
1:18:03
|
|
|
13:53
|
2:15:32
|
1:03:58
|
|
16:57
|
2:47:05
|
1:18:37
|
|
|
13:58
|
2:16:22
|
1:04:22
|
|
17:04
|
2:48:21
|
1:19:12
|
|
|
14:03
|
2:17:12
|
1:04:46
|
|
17:12
|
2:49:38
|
1:19:48
|
|
|
14:08
|
2:18:04
|
1:05:09
|
|
17:19
|
2:50:56
|
1:20:24
|
|
|
14:13
|
2:18:55
|
1:05:33
|
|
17:27
|
2:52:15
|
1:21:01
|
|
|
14:18
|
2:19:48
|
1:05:57
|
|
17:35
|
2:53:36
|
1:21:38
|
|
|
14:23
|
2:20:41
|
1:06:22
|
|
17:43
|
2:54:58
|
1:22:16
|
|
|
14:28
|
2:21:34
|
1:06:47
|
|
17:51
|
2:56:21
|
1:22:54
|
|
|
14:34
|
2:22:29
|
1:07:13
|
|
17:59
|
2:57:45
|
1:23:33
|
|
|
14:39
|
2:23:24
|
1:07:38
|
|
18:07
|
2:59:11
|
1:24:13
|
|
|
14:44
|
2:24:20
|
1:08:04
|
|
18:15
|
3:00:39
|
1:24:53
|
|
|
14:50
|
2:25:16
|
1:08:30
|
|
18:24
|
3:02:07
|
1:25:34
|
|
|
14:56
|
2:26:13
|
1:08:57
|
|
18:32
|
3:03:37
|
1:26:16
|
|
|
15:01
|
2:27:11
|
1:09:24
|
|
18:41
|
3:05:09
|
1:26:58
|
|
|
15:07
|
2:28:10
|
1:09:51
|
|
18:50
|
3:06:42
|
1:27:41
|
|
|
15:13
|
2:29:10
|
1:10:18
|
|
18:59
|
3:08:17
|
1:28:24
|
|
|
15:19
|
2:30:10
|
1:10:47
|
|
19:08
|
3:09:53
|
1:29:09
|
|
|
15:25
|
2:31:11
|
1:11:15
|
|
19:18
|
3:11:32
|
1:29:54
|
|
|
15:31
|
2:32:13
|
1:11:44
|
|
19:27
|
3:13:11
|
1:30:40
|
|
|
15:37
|
2:33:16
|
1:12:13
|
|
19:37
|
3:14:53
|
1:31:27
|
|
|
15:43
|
2:34:20
|
1:12:42
|
|
19:47
|
3:16:36
|
1:32:14
|
|
|
15:49
|
2:35:25
|
1:13:13
|
|
19:57
|
3:18:21
|
1:33:02
|
|
|
15:55
|
2:36:30
|
1:13:43
|
|
20:07
|
3:20:08
|
1:33:52
|
|
|
16:02
|
2:37:37
|
1:14:14
|
|
20:17
|
3:21:57
|
1:34:42
|
|
| Race Prediction Chart
Continued |
|
5KTIME
|
MARTIME
|
HALF
|
MARTIME
|
5KTIME
|
MARTIME
|
HALF
|
MARTIME
|
|
20:27
|
3:23:48
|
1:35:33
|
|
27:55
|
4:44:36
|
2:12:22
|
|
|
20:38
|
3:25:41
|
1:36:25
|
|
28:15
|
4:48:17
|
2:14:02
|
|
|
20:49
|
3:27:36
|
1:37:18
|
|
28:35
|
4:52:04
|
2:15:44
|
|
|
21:00
|
3:29:34
|
1:38:11
|
|
28:56
|
4:55:57
|
2:17:29
|
|
|
21:11
|
3:31:33
|
1:39:07
|
|
29:18
|
4:59:56
|
2:19:18
|
|
|
21:23
|
3:33:35
|
1:40:02
|
|
29:39
|
5:04:02
|
2:21:08
|
|
|
21:34
|
3:35:39
|
1:40:59
|
|
30:02
|
5:08:15
|
2:23:01
|
|
|
21:46
|
3:37:46
|
1:41:57
|
|
30:49
|
5:12:34
|
2:24:59
|
|
|
21:58
|
3:39:55
|
1:42:56
|
|
30:25
|
5:17:01
|
2:26:59
|
|
|
22:10
|
3:42:06
|
1:43:57
|
|
31:13
|
5:21:36
|
2:29:01
|
|
|
22:23
|
3:44:21
|
1:44:57
|
|
31:38
|
5:26:19
|
2:31:08
|
|
|
22:36
|
3:46:38
|
1:46:00
|
|
32:05
|
5:31:12
|
2:33:30
|
|
|
22:49
|
3:48:58
|
1:47:05
|
|
32:31
|
5:36:17
|
2:36:00
|
|
|
23:02
|
3:51:21
|
1:48:10
|
|
32:59
|
5:41:23
|
2:38:30
|
|
|
23:16
|
3:53:46
|
1:49:17
|
|
33:28
|
5:46:50
|
2:41:00
|
|
|
23:30
|
3:56:15
|
1:50:24
|
|
33:55
|
5:51:58
|
2:43:30
|
|
|
23:44
|
3:58:47
|
1:51:33
|
|
34:19
|
5:56:01
|
2:46:00
|
|
|
23:58
|
4:01:23
|
1:52:45
|
|
34:48
|
6:01:24
|
2:48:00
|
|
|
24:13
|
4:04:02
|
1:53:57
|
|
35:05
|
6:05:00
|
2:49:00
|
|
|
24:28
|
4:06:44
|
1:55:11
|
|
35:30
|
6:10:00
|
2:51:00
|
|
|
24:43
|
4:09:30
|
1:56:26
|
|
35:55
|
6:15:00
|
2:53:00
|
|
|
24:59
|
4:12:20
|
1:57:44
|
|
36:20
|
6:20:00
|
2:55:00
|
|
|
25:15
|
4:15:13
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1:59:03
|
|
36:45
|
6:25:00
|
2:57:00
|
|
|
25:31
|
4:18:11
|
2:00:24
|
|
37:10
|
6:30:00
|
2:59:00
|
|
|
25:47
|
4:21:13
|
2:01:47
|
|
37:35
|
6:35:00
|
3:01:00
|
|
|
26:04
|
4:24:19
|
2:03:11
|
|
38:00
|
6:40:00
|
3:03:00
|
|
|
26:22
|
4:27:29
|
2:04:37
|
|
38:25
|
6:45:00
|
3:05:00
|
|
|
26:40
|
4:30:45
|
2:06:06
|
|
38:50
|
6:50:00
|
3:07:00
|
|
|
26:58
|
4:34:05
|
2:07:36
|
|
39:15
|
6:55:00
|
3:09:00
|
|
|
27:16
|
4:37:30
|
2:09:09
|
|
39:45
|
7:00:00
|
3:11:00
|
|
|
27:35
|
4:41:00
|
2:10:44
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|
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This chart was taken from Jeff Galloway's new Marathon! (Phidippides
Publication, 2000).
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